New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Predictions and Odds – NFL Playoffs
Who will win the last battle of the legends?
Competition: NFL playoff
Date: 18.01.2021
Betting Tips Under 52.5
Odds: 1.91
Stake: 6/10 units
Saints vs. Bucs – that means Brees vs. Brady. The game plan means it really well to us this year and gives us the duel between the two legends and all-time touchdown leaders for the third time within a few months.
Since the likelihood of Brees resigning after the season is high, it could also be the last meeting of the two future Hall of Famers. So tension is inevitable.
This is mainly due to the fact that both teams do not take much. Although the Saints have won the two previous duels this season quite convincingly, it is unlikely that they will succeed again.
Tom Brady is playing too well in the playoffs and New Orleans’ last playoff appearances in previous years were too changeable. That’s why our prediction for Saints against Buccaneers is a duel on a knife-edge, in which the better defence could make the difference.
New Orleans Saints – Stats & current form
There are hardly any two teams that are closer together in stats this season than New Orleans and Tampa Bay. The Saints collect 1.1 points less on average per game, while the Bucs score 0.7 more points per game.
With the +/- ratio, the Saints were eight points ahead of Tampa after the regular season, a blink of an eye. Even with the turnover differential, the two are only separated by a single dot (Saints +9 – Bucs +8), and so we could list numerous other statistics.
The form of the day will decide
So on Sunday, it will depend on the little things. Who can get their horsepower to the point better on the field? Which receiver might drop a crucial pass (see Wims for the Bears last weekend) or which quarterback stays clear?
Here Drew Brees is a little ahead of Tom Brady with only six interceptions, who has already thrown the ball to the opponent twelve times. However, Brees also missed a few games due to his broken ribs. Accordingly, the statistics are again clearly converging here as well.
All eyes on the defence
Although the two legends Brees and Brady will, of course, take centre stage in the media, our Game Decider is a different one: the respective defence. Whichever defence is better able to put the opposing quarterback under pressure and demoralize it with Sacks wins the game.
The Saints Defense succeeded a little better against Chicago than the Bucs Defense against Washington, which is why we advocate a tip on the Saints a little more in New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay than on Brady and his Bucs.
Key Players:
🏈 QB: Drew Brees
🏈 RB: Alvin Kamara
🏈 WR: Michael Thomas
🏈 TE: Jared Cook
🏈 K: Will Lutz
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Stats & current form
The Bucs only did what was necessary against Washington to advance one round. Was that on purpose or are they not quite as strong as many expected? That will show at the latest the game against the division rivals from New Orleans.
They also have one bill open against them, or rather two, as both games in the regular season were clearly going to Brees and Co.
Brady having problems against the Saints
Tom Brady, in particular, struggled to take care of the ball in the first two games against New Orleans. In-game 1 in September he made two interceptions, in the duel that followed even three. He threw five of his twelve interceptions against the secondary of the Saints.
Usually, such statistic is anchored in the mind of a quarterback, but if you can start this game from scratch, it’s Brady. However, his O-Line must manage to buy him a little more time, otherwise, this story could repeat itself.
Buccaneers with the more running game?
One solution for Tampa could be to focus more on the running game on Sunday. Something that they didn’t manage at all in the last game against the Saints. However, they only tried five runs. Less than any other team in any game this season.
They will not repeat this tactical mistake again, which should at least result in a somewhat closer game than in November (3:38). Who then wins, in the end, is completely open, which is why we favour the odds on sub-points at Saints vs. Bucs. After all, two top 6 defences of the league meet.
Key Players:
🏈 QB: Tom Brady
🏈 RB: Ronald Jones
🏈 WR: Mike Evans
🏈 TE: Rob Gronkowski
🏈 K: Ryan Succop
New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Direct comparison / H2H balance
We’ve already touched on the last two games from this season. Both of these (34:23 and 38: 3) clearly went to New Orleans. In total, the Saints’ winning streak currently has five successes in a row.
Nevertheless, the game starts again from zero on Monday night. Both teams will initially rely on their defence and take the game slowly. We saw that with the Saints against the Bears when they did it.
Since the Bucs could also use this strategy, we don’t expect any fireworks of points. Bets on less than 52.0 total points are therefore highly recommended. If we add up the average permitted points of both teams, we only come to 43.3.
Betting Prediction New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers tips
In summary: The Saints are very easy favourites in this matchup, as they could also win the first two duels of this season. A Tom Brady is never to be underestimated, which is why we expect a very balanced and exciting game.
Since both defences are in the top 6 of the NFL, we expect fewer points than the bookmakers give, which makes Saints versus Bucs a tip on sub-points as betting option No. 1.
Key Facts – New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tips
🏈 The Saints were able to win both regular-season games against the Bucs
🏈 With 21.1 approved points per game, the Saints are the fifth-best defence in the league
🏈 Defensive end Trey Hendrickson could return to the Saints line-up after injury
Another interesting betting option is a tip on a touchdown from wide receiver Mike Evans. Brady is often looking for him in the end zone and was able to catch a total of 13 touchdown passes in the regular season.
