ATP Finals 2020: favourites, betting odds & predictions
Thiem and Zverev only outsiders at the ATP Tour Finals?
The ATP Finals will take place for the 51st time from November 15 to 22, 2020. The most important tennis tournament apart from the Grand Slams brings together the best players on the ATP Tour year after year – including in late autumn 2020.
The two top stars from Germany and Austria – Alexander Zverev and Dominic Thiem will also be there.
But what are your chances in the fight against Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Co.?
ATP Finals 2020: Betting odds for the tournament winner
Who will win the season finale? – ATP Finals 2020
Betting Prediction: Novak Djokovic
Odds: 2.75
Betting Prediction: Daniil Medvedev
Odds: 5.50
Betting Prediction: Rafael Nadal
Odds: 6.50
Betting Prediction: Dominic Thiem
Odds 7.00
Betting Prediction: Andrey Rublev
Odds: 8.00
Betting Prediction: Alexander Zverev
Odds: 8.00
Betting Prediction: Stefanos Tsitsipas
Odds: 11.00
Betting Prediction: Diego Schwartzman
Odds: 26.00
Player field and favourites at the ATP final
As every year, the best eight players in the world will meet at the ATP Finals in 2020.
The selection of these eight players is based on the ATP world rankings. This currently looks like this:
ATP world rankings
Novak Djokovic 11,830 points
Rafael Nadal 9,850 points
Dominic Thiem 9,125 points
Daniil Medvedev 6,970 points
Roger Federer * 6,630 points
Stefanos Tsitsipas 5,925 points
Alexander Zverev 5,525 points
Andrey Rublev 3,919 points
Diego Schwartzman 3,455 points
* Knee surgery
The three Grand Slam winners of 2020 qualified for the ATP final on August 14th. Participation in the traditional tournament was never in question either at Novak Djokovic (Australian Open), Rafael Nadal (French Open) or Dominic Thiem (US Open).
Roger Federer would actually have been one of the qualified. However, as a result of his knee surgery, the old master decided to continue regeneration. He will not return to the ATP Tour until 2021.
On the list of successors in the event of injuries or other cancellations are the Italian Matteo Berrettini and the Canadian Denis Shapovalov.
Four favourites for the 2020 ATP Finals
According to the bookmakers, there are mainly four players who cannot sneak out of the role of favourites before the start of the ATP Finals. They are Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Daniil Medvedev and Dominic Thiem.
Will Novak Djokovic win the ATP Finals?
In particular, the rate of Djokovic’s success is very low at 2.75. At the beginning of the year, the Serb impressed with victories in the ATP Cup, the Australian Open and Dubai Open, before the coronavirus paralyzed the ATP Tour.
Afterwards, however, the results were rather mixed. At the US Open he was banned from the tournament in the 4th round. This was followed by the final defeat against Rafael Nadal at the French Open and recently the surprising quarter-final against Lorenzo Sonego in Vienna.
The question is whether the world number one will regain his top form in time to dominate the competition in London in his own way.
What chances does Rafael Nadal have at the ATP season finale?
Most recently, as so often in his career, the Spaniard won the French Open. He made an impressive walkthrough and did not lose a single set in the course of the tournament – not even in the final against Novak Djokovic.
The only disadvantage is that the ATP Finals in London is played on a hard court instead of on clay. On the same surface, Nadal recently lost to Alexander Zverev in the semifinals of the Paris Masters.
Even if the biggest favourites are others: Rafael Nadal cannot be written off before any tournament.
Should he play his way into a flow, he’ll be hard to beat even on hard courts. He recently celebrated the 1,000. The victory of his illustrious career.
Second best-winning odds for Daniil Medvedev
Even if Djokovic and Nadal are better-known names internationally, another player in Daniil Medvedev has slipped between them. With a betting odds of 5.50, the Russian is right at the front.
The main reason for this is his recent performance at the Paris Masters. Medvedev ultimately won in the final against Zverev. But is it really a decisive increase in shape?
Otherwise, 2020 was often the end of the tournament for Daniil Medvedev early in the tournament. This applies to the ATP tournaments in Vienna (VF against Kevin Anderson), St. Petersburg (AF against Reilly Opelka) and the French Open (round of 128 against Marton Fucsovics).
What are Dominic Thiem’s chances of winning?
The Austrian Dominic Thiem wrote sports history for his country by winning the US Open 2020. At the beginning of the year, he was already close to a Grand Slam triumph at the Australian Open but then lost to Novak Djokovic.
Apart from the two Grand Slams, however, the Viennese did not convince unconditionally. On the ATP Tour, he was eliminated in the quarter-finals in Vienna, previously also at the French Open. At the Cincinnati Masters, he lost his opening game directly.
The finalist of the ATP Finals 2019 would now like to finally add this title to his vita.
These players are just underdogs in the final tournament
In addition to the four favourites, Alexander Zverev, last year’s winner Stefanos Tsitsipas, Andrey Rublev and Diego Schwartzman will be at the tournament.
They too are by no means without a chance, as last year’s edition shows.
Can Alexander Zverev repeat his 2018 ATP Finals victory?
From a German perspective, Alexander Zverev is the bearer of hope in men’s tennis. He won the ATP Finals 2018 and reached the semifinals last year. The hardcourt in London seems to suit the Hamburg native.
In the 2020 edition, he is seventh in the world rankings. The betting odds of 8.00 already show that repeated success is by no means excluded.
Zverev’s shape is also right. At the Paris Masters, he reached the final and lost in three sets against Daniil Medvedev. He previously won both ATP 250 tournaments in Cologne, one of them against Diego Schwartzman.
Zverev has played three indoor hard courts in preparation for London and can feel ready for the big competition.
The big insider tip is Andrey Rublev
With the second-best win rate in 2020, the insider tip travels to the finals of the ATP Tour in London.
Andrey Rublev won 80% of his games and three of his last five tournaments (Vienna, St. Petersburg and Hamburg). He beat some top-class opponents like Dominic Thiem and Stefanos Tsitsipas.
The balance of the ATP Finals participants 2020
Novak Djokovic 39-3 92.1% Rome, Cincinnati, Dubai, Australian Open
Andrey Rublev 40-8 80% Vienna, St. Petersburg, Hamburg, Adelaide, Doha
Rafael Nadal 25-5 80% French Open, Acapulco
Dominic Thiem 22-7 68.2% US Open
Alexander Zverev 27-9 66.7% Cologne 1, Cologne 2
Stefanos Tsitsipas 28-12 57.1% Marseille
Daniil Medvedev 23-10 56.5% Paris
Diego Schwartzman 25-12 52% None
Overall, Rublev was able to win most of the ATP Tour with five tournament wins in 2020. In this respect, the betting odds of 8.00 seem almost too high. However, his career record against top 10 players of around 43% wins is negative.
Particularly interesting from a German point of view: Andrey Rublev has never won against Alexander Zverev. All four attempts ended in defeat for the Russian.
Can last year’s winner Tsitsipas win again?
In 2019 Stefanos Tsitsipas surprisingly secured the title. He beat Dominic Thiem in three sets. In doing so, he continued the series of outsider successes in the last three years.
Zverev and the Bulgarian Giorgi Dimitrov were able to triumph in front of the Greek.
The last ten ATP Finals winners
- 2019 Stefanos Tsitsipas
- 2018 Alexander Zverev
- 2017 Grigor Dimitrov
- 2016 Andy Murray
- 2015 Novak Djokovic
- 2014 Novak Djokovic
- 2013 Novak Djokovic
- 2012 Novak Djokovic
- 2011 Roger Federer
- 2010 Roger Federer
The 2020 game year is rather moderate for Tsitsipas with a win rate of 57.1%. In Rome, Vienna and Paris, it always ended early. At the French Open, he reached the semi-finals, in Hamburg the final. The only title in 2020 was many months ago. Tsitsipas drove it in at an ATP250 tournament in Marseille.
Persistent leg problems presented the young Greeks with difficulties, again and again, this season.
Diego Schwartzman as a point supplier for the big names?
The clear outsider in the tournament is Diego Schwartzman. The Argentine is currently in 9th place in the world rankings and is only there thanks to Roger Federer’s absence in London. He is the only player from the field who did not win a single title in 2020. The win rate of 52% is not really convincing either.
Admittedly, in the last tournaments, he always met strong opponents who are higher in the world rankings: Medvedev in Paris, Zverev in Cologne, Nadal in Roland Garros and Djokovic in Rome.
In view of the lack of success against the best players, Schwartzman should still start the tournament with not too much self-confidence. It is also the premiere of his final.
What is the schedule for the 2020 ATP Finals?
A schedule has not yet been set. The draw for the ATP Finals will take place on November 12th at 6 p.m., before the first group matches begin three days later in the O2 Arena.
The eight players are divided into two equal groups in which everyone plays against everyone. The top 2 in each group advance to the semi-finals. The semifinals will take place on November 21, before the final will take place one day later.
The only thing that is clear at the moment is that Novak Djokovic plays in the group “Tokyo 1970” and Rafael Nadal in the group “London 2020”.
The final score in both groups is determined as follows:
1. Number of wins
2. Number of games
3. In the event of a tie between two players: H2H balance
4. In the event of a tie between three players: the percentage of sets won, percentage of games won and then H2H balance
5. ATP ranking.
What else is important about the ATP Tour Final?
These are the last ATP Finals that will take place in London. In the coming year, the tournament will move to Turin, Italy, for financial reasons. Thanks to government support, the prize money is set to rise by 50%.
However, 9 million US dollars are already being distributed to active members. The winner will receive $ 550,000. If he wins unbeaten, it will be $ 1.564 million. There are also 500 or 1,500 world ranking points.
In addition to the individual tournament, the ATP Finals are also played in doubles. Among other things, the German top team Kevin Krawietz / Andreas Mies, which recently won the French Open.
PicksSoccer Experts Prediction for the ATP Finals 2020
In contrast to the previous year, all top players of the last few months are fit and active at the end of 2020. Novak Djokovic is a big favourite but has been waiting for a title at the finals since 2015.
Basically there is a high quality in the field of participants, from which practically everyone can win, as Stefanos Tsitsipas proved last year. From a German and Austrian perspective, the focus is primarily on the games by Alexander Zverev and Dominic Thiem.
We recommend you take a look at Andrey Rublev. The Russian is in great shape in 2020 and has already won five tournaments. He could undoubtedly cause a surprise against the established ones in London.
