Italy vs Finland Betting Predictions 23/03/2019

Only 1.63 meters tall, only four goals scored, already 27 years old and completed only 30 A-national games and still miss him all over Italy. The speech is from Lorenzo Insigne of SSC Napoli. Actually, he should not play in the “Squadra Azzurra” anymore. Roberto Mancini ordered a rejuvenation cure for the Italian national team. Thus, it is not surprising that in the current squad, which was called up for the European Championship qualifiers, only four players were nominated with 30 or more games under its belt. Only the two defenses Leonardo Bonucci (85 A-internationals) and Giorgio Chiellini (captain – 100 A-internationals) bring real experience.

Italy vs Finland Football Betting Prediction

That this rejuvenation cure is needed, was every Italian at the latest after missing the 2018 World Cup aware. For the Finns that looks quite different. In total, seven players with more than 30 games experience were nominated. The average age is also significantly higher. It is therefore not surprising that in Italy Finland is a prediction harder than usual. Taking the good old days as a benchmark, Italy would have always been the clear favorite. The experience, however, is now more on the side of the Scandinavians. Nevertheless, the individual quality is higher, which still justifies a tip on the hosts in Italy vs Finland.


Italy – Statistics & Current Form

If one thinks of Italy, the name Juventus inevitably comes to mind. Roberto Mancini was nominated for six squads by the Italian series champion: Mattia Perin, Leonardo Bonucci, Giorgio Chiellini, Leonardo Spinazzola, Federico Bernardeschi and Moise Kean. After the loss of Insigne it surprises at least a little that Mario Balotelli was not nominated. In his last seven Ligue 1 games, he scored a total of five goals. No other Italian striker currently has a better cut. It will come to the performance of Ciro Immobile for better or worse. However, since this is also in an excellent form, the 2006 World Champion may not be too worried about the duel against Finland.

The year 2018 was certainly not very successful. Since the inauguration of Roberto Mancini Italy played nine games. Three wins face four draws and two defeats. The goal balance is balanced at 8: 8. However, it must not be forgotten that the opponents with u. a. France, Holland, Poland and Portugal were not patronized. The most striking thing is that the matches of the “Squadra Azzurra” ended again with a typical Italian result: 1: 1, 0: 0 and 1: 0 were the three main finals in the last nine matches. Thus, Italy is back finally saddle again. But in the end goals were actually not enough to be back in the world class. A closer look at the last duels shows, however, that Italy really left a lot of high-caliber winners and certainly could have scored more goals, if not have to. In Italy against Finland a tip on under 2.5 goals would be very attractive. The odds, however, is a rather poor 1.70, which makes betting of this kind again rather uninteresting. With all the negative coverage of Italy – be it inexperience, the many only narrow victories, etc. – it remains a fact that the “Squadra Azzurra” is a true home-night. Including friendly matches, Italy is undefeated since 15 home games. Only France was able to wrestle Italy in 2016 in a friendly match 1: 3.

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Expected formation of Italy:
Donnarumma – Florence, Bonucci, Chiellini, Biraghi – Verratti, Jorginho, Barella – Lasagna, Immobile, Quagliarella

Last matches of Italy:

‎⚽ 20.11.2018 – Italy vs. USA 1: 0 (International Friendlies)
‎⚽ 17.11.2018 – Italy vs. Portugal 0: 0 (Nations League)
‎⚽ 14.10.2018 – Poland vs. Italy 0: 1 (Nations League)
‎⚽ 10.10.2018 – Italy vs. Ukraine 1: 1 (International Friendlies)
‎⚽ 10.09.2018 – Portugal vs. Italy 1: 0 (Nations League)

Finland – Statistics & Current Form

The Finns will have to give up one of the most experienced defenders in their ranks in the landmark game against Italy. At just 24, Jere Uronen is one of the key players of coach Markku Kanerva. As a left-back, he not only often wins decisive duels in the backward movement. He also regularly provides one or the other dangerous action in the offensive.

“The beginning of the game will be very difficult for us. Italy wants to offer something to its audience after the last few years have been somewhat difficult. You will be highly motivated. That’s why it’s important that we keep the zero right at the beginning and get involved ourselves. ” – Captain Tim Sparv on the match plan against Italy

Not least due to the good performances of Uronen Finland secured in the Nations League the first place in the league C before Hungary, Greece and Estonia. Thus, it is possible that the Scandinavians could meet at the next edition of the Nations League on the German national team, since both are from now on in the league B represented. Finland won its first four competitive games in series. Thus, the last two defeats against Greece (0: 1) and Hungary (0: 2) also did not hurt, as first place was already secured. Finland is clearly on the upswing. Since 02/09/2017, the Kanerva-Eleven has lost only four games, two of them in inconsequential friendlies. Thus, Markku Karnerva is the most successful main coach Finland has ever had. Ten of his 19 games were won under his leadership, which equates to a success rate of over 50%. The reason for the success is certainly the greatly improved defense. During the Nations League, Finland had to concede only three goals in the six group matches. A total of four times zero. Italy could be hard on Finland to score the first goal. On the contrary, the Finns scored the first goal in six of their last nine matches.

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Expected establishment of Finland:
Hradecky – Granlund, Toivio, Arajuuri, Pirinen – Lod, Sparv, Kauko, Soiri – Lappalainen, Pukki

Last matches of Finland:

‎⚽ 11.01.2019 – Finland vs. Estonia 1: 2 (Non-FIFA Friendlies)
‎⚽ 08.01.2019 – Sweden vs. Finland 0: 1 (Non-FIFA Friendlies)
‎⚽ 18.11.2018 – Hungary vs. Finland 2: 0 (Nations League)
‎⚽ 15.11.2018 – Greece vs. Finland 1: 0 (Nations League)
‎⚽ 15.10.2018 – Finland vs. Greece 2: 0 (Nations League)

Italy vs Finland Direct Comparison

There have been 13 direct duels between Italy and Finland so far. The balance sheet clearly supports our tip. A total of eleven times the “Squadra Azzurra” left the course as the winner. On the other hand, there is a draw and a draw. The last game was played in 2016 as part of a friendly match. Italy won 2-0 at home. The last games before that, however, are so long back (2004 and earlier) that they should not be included in the prediction in the match between Italy and Finland.

Italy vs Finland Our Betting Prediction

Although the defensive section of the Finns is so stable, we look at Finland against a tip on the “Squadra Azzurra” even in handicap -1.5 as promising. Because as good as the defense is, so weak act the Scandinavians on the offensive. In the six competitive matches of the Nations League, Finland scored just five goals. This represents a negative record among the first-place finishers of all groups. In addition, even Italy has an excellent defense. It is therefore easy to imagine that in Italy vs Finland, the prediction could lead to a precise 2: 0.

Key Facts – Italy vs Finland tips

Finland scored with only five goals in first place of its Nations League group.
Finland played four times in the last six competitive matches.
Italy’s makeover is clearly showing fruit. In the Nations League only one game against the European champions Portugal was lost.

In any case, we have little doubt that the odds offered between Italy and Finland do not correspond to the starting position. The “Squadra Azzurra” is especially in front of home crowd as even clearer favorite in the game of the European Championship qualifying Group J, as implied by the odds. The guests have taken a huge step forward under new coach Markku Kanerva, but they can not compete with the higher individual quality of the 2006 World Champion. That’s why we voted against Italy. Finland decided for the tip that the hosts will win the game with at least two goals difference. The odds of 2.05 are far more lucrative than the odds of a normal home win.

Betting Prediction: win Italy (-1.5)
Odds: 2.05

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